Why don’t we bank on factoring in that £9bn, Mr Carney – or have we?


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As most people in the UK and Ireland will know, the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, announced yesterday the result of various scenarios relating to Bank of England  projections for the UK economy in the event of leaving with the May/EU agreed deal… or no deal… or the Norway option or Chad and the other(s)… I can’t remember.

These are even more blood curdling than similar doom-laden tropes trotted out in 2016 before the referendum.

This time, Mr Carney, the most talented central banker in circulation it is said, more or less predicted houses would suffer spontaneous self-combustion never mind loss of value, inflation would hit Zimbabwe and Venezuela levels combined, and the Queen would fall pregnant with triplets by Donald Trump.

I confess I may have misheard or misread the last bit.
As regular readers will attest (ha!), I’m not one to be picky but … the last lamentable swathe of apocalyptic predictions from the Bank and others, turned out to be, well, a tad wrong. By a tad, I mean spectacularly so.

Perhaps one of you or someone can help here? But also in these predictions about GDP, inflation and so forth, there seems to be something of a black hole.
Unless I’ve missed something, none of these scenarios or predictions factors in anywhere, contain or take account of this fact: in 2017, the UK’s contribution to the EU budget was £13billion gross; £8.9 billion net, after rebate etc (source: researchbriefings.parliament.uk). I rather think this is a significant sum of cash.

Now, if it has been factored in and I’ve missed it, please enlighten me and I’ll apologise and delete this article.
Otherwise, I mean, only a thought, but if a country has suddenly, let’s be a genuine tad generous, got £9 billion to spare, I’d imagine that can more than help to shore up the economy through, for example, an emergency Budget to cut the basic rate of tax by 1p to help consumer confidence and consumer spending to support the services sector (biggest part of UK GDP); spending on infrastructure to help employment; oh, and a temporary corporate tax rate cut for financial services alone (about 9% of UK GDP) to 12% from April 1, 2019 to protect London as the financial capital of the world and to signal to the EU that its anti-democratic decision/policy for wanting to “punish” the UK for having the temerity to want to leave the EU, thus terrifying the the other 27 member states of ever considering such a thing when they are not the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world depending on the value of sterling, is/was ill-advised.

Finalement, if I’m a bit short on financing on those few ideas above, I can think of a simple low-cost tax rise which would go more or less unnoticed by everyone but digital/web companies which I won’t detail here because it might have some genuine legs and I want paying for the idea because I have envious debts and I’m a freelance.
As I say though, this could all be rubbish because they have factored in the £8.9 billion. Glad for you to point it out if so. Thankfully for you, I’ll shut up and adieu for now. 


2 thoughts on “Why don’t we bank on factoring in that £9bn, Mr Carney – or have we?

  1. Lisa Horton Not surprisingly there hasn’t been a lot of transparency when it comes to the, ahem, actual figures.

    I’d like to see at least three year forecast accounts for UK Trading Co, alas I’m not sure if Northern Ireland would include their set or would want to be invited, and then there’s the Scots and that meddlesome Nippie Sweetie thinging bloke/woman.

    Forecasts would help before forming a decision. But that’s the fastidious accountant type in me…

    Brexit has been more of a financial cookit for the most part. I want hard honest facts not speculative bloody gloom and doom.

    Monday morning grumble over.

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